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April 15, 2024 Charts

S&P/TSX E&P Index hits its highest since 2014; Natural gas futures remain in steep contango; US natural gas production down amid low prices

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Oil and More Turmoil: An Interview with Raoul LeBlanc, S&P Global Commodity Insights


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The threat of a wider Middle East war is increasing. Over the past weekend, Iran attacked Israel with missiles and drones in retaliation for Israel’s suspected strike on Iran’s embassy in Syria. This week, our guest, Raoul LeBlanc, Vice President, Energy, S&P Global Commodity Insights, explains why oil prices have increased over the past few months, including the impact of the growing conflict in the Middle East, OPEC+, and US shale oil growth. 

Jackie and Peter also asked Raoul about recent research by Prof. Robert Howarth from Cornell University. The paper, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, concludes that US LNG could be comparable to, or even worse than, coal from a GHG emissions perspective when methane leaking is considered. A BNN article reported that Howarth’s paper influenced President Biden’s pause on LNG approvals.  

Finally, Raoul explains the drivers for US oil and gas producers’ recent mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and if this trend could come to Canada. 

Content referenced in this podcast:  

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/   

 

Check us out on social media:   

X (Twitter): @arcenergyinst
LinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute   

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EV Update and The Rise of Hybrids


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This week on the podcast, our guest is Rebecca Lindland, Senior Director of Industry Data and Insights at Cars Commerce. Cars Commerce has a platform to simplify the next generation of automotive retail, including Cars.com, AccuTrade, Dealer Inspire, and coming soon, Cars Commerce Media Network. 

Rebecca is a highly respected expert in the automotive industry. She shares her views on the rise of plug-in hybrids, the recent headwinds for pure electric cars, and new auto technology.   

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Rebecca: How is the auto industry doing now, and is it generally profitable?  Explain the difference between pure-electric, plug-in hybrid, and traditional hybrids. Why are sales of hybrid vehicles increasing in the US?  Do the new US EPA auto rules for increasing electric technology include hybrids? Is the higher price of plug-in hybrids and pure electric vehicles a barrier to sales? Why are Tesla’s sales slowing? Explain BYD’s success in 2023 and if they could come to North America.  Do you think solid-state batteries, if they become available, will increase EV adoption rates? Are self-driving electric cars just delayed, or are they no longer likely?  

Other content referenced in this podcast: 

Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ 

 Check us out on social media:  

X (Twitter): @arcenergyinst
LinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute 

Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas Podcast
Apple Podcasts
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Spotify 

Episode 236 transcript

Speaker 1:

The information and opinions presented in this ARC Energy Ideas Podcast are provided for informational purposes only and are subject to the disclaimer link in the show notes.

Speaker 2:

This is the ARC Energy Ideas Podcast with Peter Tertzakian and Jackie Forrest. Exploring trends that influence the energy business.

Jackie Forrest:

Welcome to the ARC Energy Ideas Podcast. I’m Jackie Forrest.

Peter Tertzakian:

And I’m Peter Tertzakian. Welcome back. Jackie, there’s always so many stories that are going on in the world of energy, but I think we have to address here in the very near-term, I think, the number-one story, and that is in the last month, the price of oil has risen $10 a barrel, going from, well, let’s take WTI-77 to over $87 a barrel. That $10 rise is really significant.

And I remember doing some numbers, so a couple years back, trying to equate the rise in a price of oil to an equivalent carbon tax at the pump. And every $10-a-barrel rise in the price of oil is a $35-a-ton carbon tax at the pump.

And here we are. Last week, we talked about $15-a-ton rise. But actually, behind the scenes, there’s some pretty serious inflation. So, we’re going to talk about the price of oil.

Jackie Forrest:

Yeah. I think we should cover that, the fundamentals of why the market is tightening. But it’s interesting. I think it has an impact on the auto industry as well.

I just read this New York Times article, Hybrid Cars Enjoy a Renaissance, and we’re hearing companies like Ford saying just last week, every model is going to be hybrid. And groups like Toyota, that were kind of people were not being very nice about Toyota, now looking pretty smart because there seems to be sales increasing around hybrid vehicles.

Peter Tertzakian:

Well, I think we’re going to see some very interesting dynamics over the course of the next couple of years, because between the price of gasoline rising, at least in the near-term, and the challenges, or the near-term challenges that we read and hear about in the electric vehicle industry, there’s going to be a lot to talk about. But hey, let’s get started.

Today, we’ve got a guest with us, a guest that we’ve met and had at one of our symposiums a few years back, Rebecca Lindland. We’re delighted to have you back. Rebecca’s the senior director industry data and insights at Cars Commerce, and she comes to us from sunny Los Angeles. Welcome, Rebecca.

Rebecca Lindland:

Thank you so much, Peter. And Jackie, it’s great to see you again. I’m delighted to be on.

Jackie Forrest:

Well, things have changed a lot. It was actually more than a few years ago. I think it was 2017, we had you in Calgary, and at that time, electric cars were about 1% of new car sales globally. Today, they’re, depending on who you look at, I’m sure you guys have the most accurate numbers, but something like 16 to 18% of all new car sales in 2023.

But they seem to be hitting maybe some headwinds here as well, so we’re interested in learning all about that. But before we start, tell our listeners a little bit about yourself and your current role at Cars Commerce.

Rebecca Lindland:

Yeah. So, I’ve been in the industry for the better part of 25 years now. I’ve loved cars my whole life. I’ve always known every car on the road for some reason, I have no idea why, but ever since I was a little kid, I’ve absolutely loved them. And I love people too, so it’s great to be able to work for a company like Cars Commerce.

The role that I have now, it really utilizes all the data and expertise we have across the brands. This is Cars.com, Accu-Trade, Dealer Inspire, and our media network, and our goal is to really simplify the car buying and selling process for consumers and dealers and tell the industry the story that only Cars Commerce can tell utilizing all of those aspects of the company. So it’s great to be here, I’m really excited about it, and let’s get started.

Peter Tertzakian:

Yeah, let’s get started. I mean, cars are so much a part of our identity, even maybe more so than going from A to B.

So, let’s talk about cars in general. What are the sales like for all vehicles? And post-pandemic, post-interest rate hikes, all the dynamics that we’ve seen over the course of the last, let’s just say, three, four years, what’s going on with car sales in general?

Rebecca Lindland:

We’re definitely seeing a recovery in the car market from the pandemic years, really 2020, ’21, ’22, and into ’23. We estimate we’re down about 800,000 units in the States in terms of new car sales. So, there’s a really healthy amount of pent-up demand. We’re also seeing improving supplies, because not only did we have a chip shortage through the pandemic-

Peter Tertzakian:

Yeah, I remember that.

Rebecca Lindland:

Right. But then of course, in September, we had the UAW strike, and so that also impacted availability of new cars.

Peter Tertzakian:

So, 800,000 down, what is the total annual sales of vehicles in the United States?

Rebecca Lindland:

It’s actually about 15 and a half million units.

Peter Tertzakian:

That’s still a lot.

Rebecca Lindland:

It’s still a lot. It’s the second-largest single market behind China. China is in that 20-million-unit range. So, the US is still a significant single market for manufacturers.

Jackie Forrest:

Now, the automakers, they had a hard time during the COVID. A lot of them were not making money. Are they profitable now?

Rebecca Lindland:

They are certainly more profitable now than they had been in the past. I think there was a combination of things.

If we go back even to the bankruptcies of 2008, and the time 2007 and ’08, where there was a lot of consolidation in the industry. There were a lot of brands that were discontinued, and there was an opportunity to almost right-size some of these companies.

So that, I think, has helped them with profitability. They’re also able to share platforms and technology, and that, again, helps with economies of scale and such.

Peter Tertzakian:

Mm-hmm. Well, let’s talk about the different types of vehicles, particularly electric vehicles. Now, I actually have been to the Detroit Auto Show, but it’s been over 20 years ago. I went a couple times. It was just amazing.

Rebecca Lindland:

Oh, gosh.

Peter Tertzakian:

And in fact, I was there the year the Toyota Prius was released, I think, or within a year, and it was sort of a curiosity in the corner. So that is an example originally of a hybrid vehicle, where there’s an electric motor that runs off of a battery, which is charged by the combustion engine.

Then there’s now plug-in hybrids and variations thereof, and then pure vehicles. So, when we discuss electric vehicles, which we’re going to do in a minute, give our audience a sense of the major classifications out there?

Rebecca Lindland:

When we’re thinking about an electric vehicle. These are things like obviously all the Tesla models. The Nissan LEAF was really one of the first ones in more recent times, and something like the Chevy Bolt. These are pure electric. You can only plug them into refuel, if you will. You don’t have a gas refueling option.

Then when we think about plug-in hybrids, plug-in hybrids, they’re part hybrid and they’re part electric car. A regular hybrid that has basically an engine that you have a battery and you have an engine, so you have both capabilities.

With plug-ins, you have a capability where you can plug this thing in and utilize the battery. You can run on pure battery alone, typically up to about 45 miles, and then you can also kind of refuel it with gas. So, it’s sort of the best of both in many ways.

Jackie Forrest:

Now, when people cite EV numbers, I think they’re often including those plug-in vehicles, the ones that can go 45 miles on electric as part of their EV numbers. Is that how you categorize them? Just for the discussion today?

Rebecca Lindland:

On Cars.com, on the marketplace, and in the Cars Commerce universe, we talk about EVs as pure EVs. We don’t include hybrids or plug-in hybrids.

Jackie Forrest:

Well, I think that’s important for the discussion, because different groups do it differently, and sometimes you get different numbers. And it’s interesting, because 45 miles, a lot of people, maybe clarify if I’m wrong, but 45 miles is a lot of their daily travels. And so, if you have one of those, you may almost not be using gasoline most of the time.

Rebecca Lindland:

Absolutely. If you have a place to plug in your plug-in hybrid, you can typically, as you say, do a typical day’s driving. Whether you’re picking up kids at school or you’re commuting into the office, most people don’t drive more than 45 miles in a single day.

Obviously, you have the exceptions. You’re going to go to grandma’s house for Thanksgiving kind of thing, then you have longer trips. But generally, 45 miles covers, I would say, about 80% of most people’s daily driving.

Peter Tertzakian:

And this is one of the big differences, isn’t it? That’s happened in the last few years is that it used to be about 20 miles or just over 30 kilometers, and now, it’s 45, which is up to in Canada, 70 kilometers-ish. And that definitely, in my opinion, is sort of a game-changer, because for urban driving you don’t need to buy gasoline.

Rebecca Lindland:

Right. No, exactly. And keep in mind, the Chevy Volt, which is now discontinued, but the Chevy Volt utilized that. It had about 45 miles of pure electric and then it switched over to gas. What they’ve done now and what manufacturers and the technology has allowed manufacturers to do is when you have a plug-in hybrid, the technology allows the vehicle to decide, the software to decide what to use when. So, if you’re driving in a stop and go traffic, that’s when a plug-in hybrid is perfect, because you’re using battery. If you’re cruising on the highway, then a gas engine may be better. So, it is able to pick and choose which technology is best suited for the driving environment.

Peter Tertzakian:

So instead of being black and white, we now have a spectrum of alternatives between combustion and pure electric. How has that translated into some of the new announced rules through the EPA that the Biden administration introduced?

Rebecca Lindland:

The Biden administration, they recently announced some new regulations here, and one of the things that they changed was that they’re now looking at encouraging plug-in hybrids versus this fully electric environment where people are just more hesitant. That’s when if you’re thinking about a fully electric vehicle, you’re looking at infrastructure and you’re looking at where are you going to charge this thing? Whereas with a hybrid, you can just go to a gas station and then at your convenience you can recharge the battery portion of this. So I think that what the new regulations and the new Environmental Protection Agency, the EPA rules have really done is acknowledge that plug-in hybrid technology is a potential solution to improving fuel economy and to driving cleaner than pure gas engines.

Jackie Forrest:

And I think the real targets early 2030s, something like 35 to 56% of pure EVs, but it also says something like 36% could be hybrids. Actually, the same New York Times article I referred, which I will put a link to in the show notes, David Christ, the general manager of Toyota in North America, he said a year ago we were being roasted in the media for not being an EV believer, and he talks about the fact with the EPA we told them just make everything hybrid. So, I think there was a belief that this rule would be only pure EV for a long time. And it was a surprise to some industry watchers that they allowed some more flexibility. Is that right?

Rebecca Lindland:

Yes, and I think it acknowledges the fact that we still have a lot of work to do in the EV space in terms of things like infrastructure, putting in high speed chargers, accommodating multifamily residences, looking at where do we need to put this infrastructure, and eventually we do need a very widespread web of electric chargers that you can…so you feel as comfortable owning an EV and being able to charge it quickly, and by quickly I mean in minutes versus hours.

Jackie Forrest:

Now aren’t these worse for emissions? Yes, you’re going to be more efficient, but you’re still using petroleum for a lot of your kilometers. Isn’t that a concern?

Rebecca Lindland:

Well, hybrids do use petrol. They still use less. You still are getting better fuel economy. And also keep in mind that you can drive mostly on battery if you are able to charge your plug-in hybrid every day, basically, if you’re driving 40 to 45 miles on a daily basis, but there’s plenty of people who are maybe driving 20 miles and then you only need to charge it every other day and you can still drive on pure electric. I have friends that have plug-in hybrids, and they’ll tell me, they’re like, “Oh, I had to get gas after three months,” because they’re diligent about recharging their battery. And so, you can go for months and months and months and not use petrol.

Peter Tertzakian:

Yeah, this is really interesting, because Jackie, at the beginning you rattled off the stats, when we first met Rebecca, electric vehicle sales were 1%, now they’re, I don’t know, 15 to 20 depending on where you are. And actually, that is the point, depending upon where you are, because it is not homogeneous, it’s not uniform the adoption, most of the adoption is in urban centers. It’s not really in the rural parts. And that’s where in a country like Canada or even the United States, which has a lot of distance, and the electric vehicle infrastructure is not really very well established, if at all, in rural communities, to me hybrids make a ton of sense for our country. And I think that the US in acknowledging that in these rules is a step in the right direction.

Jackie Forrest:

So, Peter, are you going to trade in your EV for a hybrid now?

Peter Tertzakian:

Well, I might. I consider a next car, I come back to what I said earlier, it’s a game changer that the battery inside a plug-in electric is expanded to the point where, as Rebecca said, you can drive probably three months without having to fill up if you’re just doing the normal commute. Mine is about 40K a day. So, there’s no need for gas if you are mindful about plugging in every evening, which I do anyway, but it’s a backup. If I want to go to Grand Prairie, it’s a bit of a hassle, isn’t it?

Jackie Forrest:

Oh, for sure. And definitely in Western Canada you do have range anxiety and you’re really worried about where you’re going to get, especially in the winter. But then you give up, I think you would give up your performance, that huge acceleration that you get from the electric car.

Peter Tertzakian:

It depends on what model you buy and how much you’re willing to pay.

Rebecca Lindland:

Exactly. It very much does. You still enjoy the instant torque of an electric motor in certain circumstances. So, you’re not necessarily giving up all of the performance. And as Peter said, you’re gaining a lot, you’re gaining a lot of the reassurance that consumers are concerned about when it comes to an electric, a pure electric vehicle where you can only charge it. And also, I think here in the States we have some similar constraints. As you say, we have very long distances, we have very cold weather. I’ve spent some time up in Alaska, an EV is going to be really tough up there, but a plug-in may be perfect. I think, again, when we think about hybrids and adoption, there’s opportunities to improve your fuel economy, there’s opportunities to lower your gas usage and lower your emissions usage by being able to plug in a plug-in hybrid.

Jackie Forrest:

And I want to get to the electric car sales and how they’ve been disappointing, not growing as much as people anticipated, but I do think there’s that narrative that we’re getting out of the early adopters, and it may be a better product for a lot of people. I’ve had lots of conversations with people around electrics, and they don’t understand the technology, they don’t know how it works. So, it is a good way to slowly get them into the electric mindset without going all the way with the first car.

Peter Tertzakian:

And Rebecca, you can chime in here, but one of the things when I’ve studied mobility as it relates to energy over the years, people are willing to pay a huge premium in their vehicles. First, let’s take size. You pay a huge premium to haul around a big vehicle, say a pickup truck, because you may, on a few occasions, want to go to the hardware store and buy a bunch of wood. I don’t know. What I’m getting at is people will pay a huge premium for range and range comfort.

Rebecca Lindland:

I think they’ll pay for convenience and utility. And I know that there’s often discussions about that price is a barrier to electric vehicles. I hesitate to necessarily agree with that though, because people will pay a lot for convenience and for a product that they perceive as better. And we see that people buy a mobile phone that are incredibly expensive because they like it because they want it, they perceive it as making their lives better and more convenient. And the challenge that electric vehicles have is the idea of that is it a better mobility solution than a gas engine? And for many people, the perception isn’t there. It may be, because especially as we focused on that daily driving, but you still have to find a place to plug it in if it’s an all-electric vehicle, and that gets back to the infrastructure that we still need a significant investment in. Around the world, in any country, you still need infrastructure for electric vehicles.

Jackie Forrest:

Now, just to put it in perspective, this is from the same article. It said that Americans were buying about 1.2 million EVs, which was about 8% of all new car sales. And hybrids were a similar amount actually, although they’ve been growing faster than EVs. So, the vast majority of cars are still combustion engine. I was just doing some checking. It seems like for both the plugin, the pure plugin hybrids or the EVs, you’re talking about 20 to 30% higher, before subsidies. Subsidies can narrow that gap. Is the price difference why we don’t sell more hybrids or is it supply? Because I know a lot of people that say they’d like to buy a hybrid, but it’s like they got to wait a year for the hybrid plugin option.

Rebecca Lindland:

The manufacturers have been given a lot of mixed messages in many ways, by regulators around the world. Here in the States, on the one hand, they’ve been told by 2030 initially, as you pointed out with the regulations, initially it was like you’ve got to be 56% EV by 2032, which is basically one model life cycle. Most models are put in the marketplace for about seven years, and now we’re like, oh, no, you know what? It’s okay to have hybrid. You don’t have to be emissions-free by 2030 or 2035. That’s a very different message than we’ve given them in the past. So, I think that that’s something that we need to think about, that the manufacturers, if we’re able to encourage them to bring in hybrids, people are more apt to adopt a hybrid vehicle. I know on Cars marketplace, we’ve got about twice as many people shopping for a hybrid and researching hybrids versus electric vehicles. So, there’s still education that needs to be done, but I think that consumers are really interested in this solution of a plugin hybrid.

Peter Tertzakian:

Right. So, let’s look at the headlines. We have Apple basically shelve its electric vehicle. I read over the weekend, correct me if I’m wrong, Tesla’s shelving its low-cost electric vehicle, the ones that it had been touting for so long. We have Ford slowing down its assembly lines, delaying our own battery plant here in Canada by a couple of years. So, in reading the headlines, you’d think EVs are in big trouble. What is the real story behind the scenes?

Rebecca Lindland:

I think the real story is that we have a hesitant consumer. As Jackie said, we’re moving from early adopters into mainstream. And we need to do this in order to have a proliferation of electric vehicles. But there is a big difference in the mindset of somebody who is an early adopter, is willing to tolerate maybe some compromises, is more risk-oriented, is arguably more financially risk-oriented as well. So, there is some element of financial barrier there. But at the end of the day, what we’re really looking at is consumers saying, “I want better technology, I want a vehicle that isn’t going to harm the environment, but that also provides a safe, reliable, durable mobility experience.” They’re still shepherding their families around. They still don’t want to be left on the side of the road. So that’s I think the mindset that we’re in, to convert to a mainstream buyer. I think the hybrid really is an ideal vehicle in many ways.

Jackie Forrest:

Well, let’s talk about Tesla. They had these big price cuts, so they’ve been cutting prices for most of last year to increase demand. And the price discounts vary by country, but Model S I think was around 15 or 20% in the US over 2023. And even the high-end versions they cut, I think that Plaid version, which Peter’s talked about before, it sold well over $100,000 U.S, and it’s also seen a similar price discount, but it looks like the strategy’s not working. We just learned last week that Q1 of 2024 actually saw less sales than the previous year before most of these price cuts came in. So, what’s going on there? Is it consumers’ demand for electric vehicles or is it Tesla? A lot of the narrative is they just don’t have the models that are appealing to a lot of buyers today.

Rebecca Lindland:

It’s a combination of things. Tesla has absolutely dominated the EV market around the world. We do have a new entrant, not in the States or in Canada quite yet, but they continue to push the envelope when it comes to EVs, and they have made them more mainstream than really arguably any other brand. And I think that some of the pricing that we’ve seen is a response to increased competition. Because suddenly you’ve got brands like Hyundai, Kia, Volkswagen, you’ve got mainstream brands. BMW has a wide swath of EVs or plugins in particular, Audi does as well. So all of a sudden, you’ve got some real competition in the marketplace. Right now on cars.com, the Cadillac Lyriq is the fastest selling luxury model.

And so, we’ve got a lot of activity from brands that weren’t necessarily even in the marketplace for an EV before, and all of a sudden consumers have choices. And I think that’s one of the things that we’ve seen a response in Tesla. I’ll tell you the other thing that we’ve observed is this movement from a reservation-based EV inventory where people raise their hand and say, I want to buy an EV and I’m willing to wait for it, to now dealers are stocking EVs, and the inventory numbers are rising. Because you can go in now and test drive an EV, you don’t need to pre-order it. So that’s one of the changes that we’ve noticed also. And even for Tesla, it’s a different inventory structure. I think that’s one of the things that we’ve seen with a lot of price competition, a lot of model competition, and just competition in general.

Jackie Forrest:

Just this weekend, I went to visit my cousin and she got that new Rivian SUV. Very large, but she has a big family. And she’s like, “Well, I couldn’t get the Y because that was just way too small for our family.” But that is a beautiful car, so I agree. There’s just a lot. And I was like, well, maybe there’s a lot of more options than there used to be, for sure.

Peter Tertzakian:

Yeah, there’s more options. And one of the things we haven’t talked about is BYD from China. Actually, in 2011, I was in Shenzhen, and I actually had a private tour. I was just blown away. In 2011 of the BYD campus, it was like a small city, and I got to drive some of their vehicles around the track and I was just blown away. And in fact, that’s really when I got the EV bug was that, and also visiting Tesla’s original plant in Palo Alto. BYD now is overtaking Tesla and is looking to go global. What can we expect from them?

Rebecca Lindland:

Keep in mind, BYD, Build Your Dreams, they really rely on its domestic sales. China is the world’s largest single-car market, but it is expanding its international presence. They’re not in US or Canada yet, but I would certainly keep an eye on this brand penetrating into North America.

Peter Tertzakian:

Will we let them?

Rebecca Lindland:

Well, so this depends. We have a big election coming up in November, and it depends on tariffs and such. But the other thing too is that they are aggressive about localization for production. So, they debuted in Europe in 2021 starting in Norway, and they plan to build factories in European countries to avoid those EU tariffs. So, we could see them trying to set up production here in the NAFTA region potentially. We’ll see what happens.

Peter Tertzakian:

But it’s more than cars. It’s the issue of cybersecurity. We’re not allowing Huawei stuff. It’s just one thing after another, under the guise of cybersecurity.

Rebecca Lindland:

I think that we’ll have to see. At the end of the day, we’re a capitalist market and the consumer decides.

Jackie Forrest:

Yeah. I was actually reading an article that said that they could just turn off all the cars, potentially just shut down the economy. But I think you’re right, because here’s the thing, BYD is introducing very low-cost models. So, I was looking, they have this Seagull available only in China, with the starting price of under $10,000 U.S. I’m sure it has a shorter range. I don’t know if they can make money on that or are they subsidizing these cars. That’s always a concern with China too, that they just start dumping cars at a lower cost and the Chinese government is somewhat subsidizing that so they can gain market share. But do you think they can actually make money at those types of prices?

Rebecca Lindland:

I think that just like many manufacturers, they will offer a low-cost option in part to get consumers into both the brand and into the technology. They’re not necessarily going to make money on every vehicle, but most manufacturers don’t make money on every vehicle. But what it does allow is the trickle-down from a very luxury-oriented technology into more mainstream and accessible brands. So, as we see more EVs roll out, the prices will continue to drop as we’ve been seeing. So right now, we’re in the States here EV prices have decreased. They’re down about 4% year over year and used EVs are down almost 21% in March. So, we have a used EV option as well, which we had not had in the more recent past.

Peter Tertzakian:

You mentioned earlier Cadillac Lyriq was doing incredibly well. So what’s their formula?

Rebecca Lindland:

I think that the Cadillac Lyriq is providing a combination of that utility, the luxury that an early adopter does tend to move towards. It’s a really beautiful looking vehicle, and I’ve often told manufacturers, don’t be weird with your EVs. They don’t need to be weird. They need to look nice and they just happen to be an electric vehicle. But one of the things that when I look at some of the new products coming out is that they are more mainstream looking. They just happen to be an EV. And so that’s what I would encourage manufacturers to continue to bring out a vehicle that just so happens to be electric or a plug-in hybrid.

Jackie Forrest:

So you’re not a big fan of the Cybertruck, I guess?

Rebecca Lindland:

So it’s funny because here in Southern California, we see them all the time and it is a head turner for sure. I’m going to leave it at that.

Jackie Forrest:

Well, let’s talk about new technology. Toyota plans to introduce a 10-minute fast charging solid state battery with a 1200 kilometer range by 2028 or so. Do you think if this technology were available that would change how people look at electric cars? It seems like a very fast timeline if that’s even achievable?

Rebecca Lindland:

Well, I mean, solid state has always sort of been this holy grail of EVs, but I will say that I think if Toyota can come out with something like this, we still get back to infrastructure, because it doesn’t matter if it can be charged in 10 minutes if you are a hundred miles away from your nearest, especially fast charger. So, I will say charging has improved considerably in the now12 years, 13 years that I’ve been following electric vehicles. We definitely have seen significant improvement in charging times, but you still have to have a charger nearby.

Peter Tertzakian:

Yeah, I think that’s the thing is it’s a 10-minute charge. If you probably have level three, of which there is not much.

Jackie Forrest:

But by 2028, there might be more. Here’s another one on new technology: when we met in 2017, all we were talking about was the self-driving electric car, and that was going to be a big reason why people were going to switch to electric. And here we are 2023, and I don’t really see the self-driving car revolution yet. Is that not happening?

Rebecca Lindland:

I think there’s still a lot of really exciting things that are happening in automotive and in technology. I think that with a self-driving, is similar to solid state in many ways, sort of this holy grail, because we want to be able to take away accidents. We still have way too many people being injured and fatalities on the roads. And so that’s the goal of self-driving. It’s also time-saving as well. I think we’ve seen some interesting improvements here. There’s companies that will offer an in traffic stop and go, you have adaptable cruise control, things like that. So I love the fact that we’re continuing to push forward towards self-driving, but I think that it’s incredibly far away because the variables that we have. Roads are not standardized in any way, shape, or form, and so we have to continue to develop the technology that allows this software to adapt very quickly to continuously changing environments.

Peter Tertzakian:

So what’s the hype about the robot taxi that Tesla is going to be announcing here shortly? What’s that about?

Rebecca Lindland:

Tesla announces a lot of things.

Peter Tertzakian:

Well, they also announced that…did you get it, Jackie, the free full self-driving? Have you tried it out?

Jackie Forrest:

Oh, I haven’t seen that yet. When we first got the car, there was a beta version that we had for a month, and we tried it on the highway, but it was like a double lane highway, and I just found it very scary. I just couldn’t trust that this could have us pass a semi-truck or something on a highway, but maybe I’ll try it again. That was years ago.

Peter Tertzakian:

Yeah, I’ve tried to experiment it with it. I mean, it’s very impressive, but it’s not something that I’m going to close my eyes and let it take me from my home to the parking lot.

Rebecca Lindland:

It’s fascinating.

Peter Tertzakian:

It is fascinating and I think… but I agree with you, Rebecca. It’s got a ways to go before people are-

Rebecca Lindland:

It does.

Peter Tertzakian:

Especially a ways to go for people to be comfortable with it.

Rebecca Lindland:

Yes, and for it to be something that can adapt very quickly. But again, I love the idea that the industry is utilizing technologies and maximizing it for safety, for convenience, and being able to… if we can make mobility and transportation safer for everybody, let’s keep working towards that. Absolutely.

Peter Tertzakian:

Well, Rebecca Lindland delightful to have you. Again, I know you’re a car lover, because I’m looking at your contemporary art behind you. You’ve got a 911, and what is that, a Ferrari California or something in the back?

Rebecca Lindland:

Yeah, it’s a Ferrari there. And then the Chevy Corvette logo. And I had to get a manual transmission picture as well, being a manual transmission lover myself.

Peter Tertzakian:

Yeah. Well, we share a lot of things in common with cars, so thanks so much for joining us Rebecca Lindland from-

Rebecca Lindland:

Thank you.

Peter Tertzakian:

… Cars Commerce. Jackie, we will put up the websites and the links.

Jackie Forrest:

Yeah, we definitely will. So thank you so much for joining the podcast.

Rebecca Lindland:

Thank you so much for having me on. It’s great to see you both.

Jackie Forrest:

And thank you to our listeners. If you enjoyed this podcast, please rate us on the app that you listen to and tell someone else about us.

Speaker 2:

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April 8, 2024 Charts

S&P/TSX Composite Index hits record high; WTI rallies as spot pricing surpasses US$85/b; Backwardation in WTI forward curve steepens M/M